How Now, Brown Cow? What's next in D.C.?

How now, brown cow -- or what's next? Another election, another wave -- that seems to be the theme across the country. Republicans now hold 239 Congressional seats to the Democrats 185. Not since, 1948 have so many seats changed parties in a single election. In the Senate, the Democrats held onto their narrow majority.


The state of the economy, general unhappiness with Obama and a conservative tilting voter base are all cited as reasons for the swing.


The head of the transition team for Congressional Republicans is certainly sending a positive message, referring to common sense as an endangered species in D.C. politics. Again, we can only hope this attitude continues as the new political normal in D.C. politics.

Some of the top issues we will be hearing about are as follows:

1. Avoiding tax increases.

This issue has been on the radar for both main street and wall street -- whether to raise income taxes across the board. John Mauldin, an economist whom I follow, had this to say,

"If the Bush tax cuts are not extended, in my opinion it is almost a lock that we go into a recession next year, unemployment goes to 12%, and underemployment gets even worse."

A recent New York Times article provides an overview of some of the political options that will be in play -- allow expiration of all tax cuts (expected to generate $260 billion per year in revenue); permanently extend all tax cuts; create a new tax bracket for those making over $1 million; or permanent extension of tax cuts under $250,000 (married) and a temporary extension of the tax cuts for incomes over $250,000. The last concept is referred to as "decoupling" and has been promoted by President Obama, although the White House recently indicated that they may be open to a broader approach.

This issue affects all working Americans as all of the tax brackets are set to increase at the end of this year -- Happy New Year! In addition, capital gains and dividend rates will increase and the marriage penalty and phase-outs will return. Read here for more.

2. Immigration reform.

Obama lobbed a bomb on this issue just prior to the election when he told Latinos to "punish our enemies" and effectively accused Republicans of being un-American. The current chatter from the new Republican leadership is that they hope to focus on "streamlined enforcement of current laws." The new Republican wave, however, is lead by a number of dynamic Hispanics, including Marco Rubio, Senator-elect from Florida, who are expected to help find a way to fix the immigration quagmire.

3. Obamacare.

Many Republicans campaigned on the "repeal Obamacare" platform. Now, there will be a push to repeal and replace Obamacare. Whether this resistance will be symbolic or actual will need to play itself out. Watch for the "defund Obamacare" motto as the initial step and repeal as hot topic for the 2012 Presidential run-up.

4. Political climate.

Another factor interjected into all of these debates is the release of the recent draft Debt Commission Report. There is enough in this report so that both sides have referred to the proposals as "dead on arrival." Deep cuts and an overdue review of the entitlement programs causes the left to bristle. The proposed tax increases are equally unacceptable by Republicans. If both sides are unhappy, that generally means its' a good compromise.

The final thing to be aware of -- the next election will be a humdinger. The Presidential election will consume reams of paper and bandwidth. Leaders in D.C. have a short window to actually address these important issues. Eventually, the politics of the Presidential election will force each side back to their respective corners.

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Anatomy of a State Political Convention

I recently attended the 2009 Minnesota Republican Convention. According to news reports, some 1,200 people attended as voting delegates at this non-election year event. As I've done frequently for the last 20 years, I attended as a delegate and participated in this grass roots political process.

For those unfamiliar with this process, here is a primer: In the spring of an even year (election year), each political party holds is precinct caucuses. This event, generally dubbed as the beginning of the election process in Minnesota, ends with the election of delegates and alternates to the convention of "BPOU" (Basic Political Operating Unit) -- in Greater Minnesota by County. During an election year, delegates and alternates are elected to during the BPOU or County Convention to both the State and District Convention (1st Congressional District for me). These delegates are then empowered to be the official voice of the State Party and Congressional District for two years (the even election year; and the odd non-election year).

A candidate seeking the party endorsement, must receive it (by vote of the delegates) at the appropriate District or State Convention.

This past weekend was the off-year State Republican Convention. An off-year is a building year, as the next election is more than a year away. Yet, these conventions are important as the building blocks for the success or failure of the party in the next election. In addition, this year was surrounded by the buzz created by a straw poll of the delegates of their first and second choice for receiving the Republican Party endorsement to run for Governor in 2010.

I decided that my determining factor in who I would support in the straw poll was how well I thought they would perform in a "purple district." A purple district (like Albert Lea) is one that is not consistently Republican (Red) or Democrat (Blue). I wanted to support a candidate that would attract independent voters and provide a boost to local Republican candidates.

I questioned the top five candidates and posted their responses on my new found friend twitter (you can view the results of these interviews to the left of my blog). In the end, I supported Marty Siefert as my first choice and David Hann as my second.

I enjoy the opportunity to see candidates at this early point in the campaign helps to separate the real person from the campaign glitz.
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